Risk and environmental sustainability

Summary

This course gives an introduction to the assessment of risk with a particular focus on modelling of rare events, which can have huge environmental impacts.

Content

Keywords

Environmental risk.  Extremal paradigm. Poisson process. Block maxima. Threshold exceedances. Risk assessment. Forecasting.

Learning Prerequisites

Required courses

Basic courses in probability and statistics (e.g., MATH-230, MATH-240)

Learning Outcomes

By the end of the course, the student must be able to:

• Choose an appropriate approach to data analysis.
• Estimate risk using statistical methods.
• Formulate models for risk analysis.
• Discuss possible issues with their analyses and propose remedies.
• Expound the main approaches and models used for analysis of rare events.

Transversal skills

• Write a scientific or technical report.
• Demonstrate the capacity for critical thinking
• Demonstrate a capacity for creativity.
• Use a work methodology appropriate to the task.

Teaching methods

Ex cathedra lectures, exercises in class and at home, mini-project.

Expected student activities

Attending lectures and exercise classes, working with other students.

Assessment methods

Final written exam, mini-project (continual assessment, 30% of final mark).

Resources

Moodle Link

• https://go.epfl.ch/MATH-383