Risk and environmental sustainability
MATH-383 / 5 credits
Teacher(s): Davison Anthony Christopher, Mhalla Ep Marchand Linda
Language: English
Summary
This course gives an introduction to the assessment of risk with a particular focus on modelling of rare events, which can have huge environmental impacts.
Content
Motivation: environmental risks and catastrophes.
Elements of risk analysis and of statistical modelling.
Probability models for rare events: Poisson process and its properties; extremal distributions and extremal paradigm.
Statistical application of rare event models in environmental settings: analysis of block maxima, threshold exceedances, Poisson models. Risk assessment via return levels, etc. Complications such as clustering and non-stationarity. Practical examples.
Deterministic and probabilistic forecast evaluation. Scoring rules and their propriety.
Keywords
Environmental risk. Extremal paradigm. Poisson process. Block maxima. Threshold exceedances. Risk assessment. Forecasting.
Learning Prerequisites
Required courses
Basic courses in probability and statistics (e.g., MATH-230, MATH-240)
Learning Outcomes
By the end of the course, the student must be able to:
- Choose an appropriate approach to data analysis.
- Estimate risk using statistical methods.
- Formulate models for risk analysis.
- Discuss possible issues with their analyses and propose remedies.
- Expound the main approaches and models used for analysis of rare events.
Transversal skills
- Write a scientific or technical report.
- Demonstrate the capacity for critical thinking
- Demonstrate a capacity for creativity.
- Use a work methodology appropriate to the task.
Teaching methods
Ex cathedra lectures, exercises in class and at home, mini-project.
Expected student activities
Attending lectures and exercise classes, working with other students.
Assessment methods
Final written exam, mini-project (continual assessment, 30% of final mark).
In the programs
- Semester: Spring
- Exam form: Written (summer session)
- Subject examined: Risk and environmental sustainability
- Lecture: 2 Hour(s) per week x 14 weeks
- Exercises: 2 Hour(s) per week x 14 weeks
- Type: optional
Reference week
| Mo | Tu | We | Th | Fr | |
| 8-9 | |||||
| 9-10 | |||||
| 10-11 | |||||
| 11-12 | |||||
| 12-13 | |||||
| 13-14 | |||||
| 14-15 | |||||
| 15-16 | |||||
| 16-17 | |||||
| 17-18 | |||||
| 18-19 | |||||
| 19-20 | |||||
| 20-21 | |||||
| 21-22 |
Légendes:
Lecture
Exercise, TP
Project, other