Risk Savvy

HUM-281 / 2 credits

Teacher: Hoffrage Heinz-Ulrich Volker

Language: English

Remark: Une seule inscription à un cours SHS+MGT autorisée. En cas d'inscriptions multiples elles seront toutes supprimées sans notification

Summary

This course is devoted to the psychology of risk (How do people make decisions in real-life situations characterized by risk and/or uncertainty?) and to risk competencies (How to make better decisions in such situations?) It covers fields such as management, leadership, medicine, and finance.

Content

The content of this seminar and of our discussions is largely determined by the chapters of Gerd Gigerenzer's book "Risk Savvy" that we will read together during the semester. Here is the table of content of the book:

PART I: The Psychology of Risk

1. Are People Stupid?

2. Certainty Is an Illusion

3. Defensive Decision Making

4. Why Do We Fear What's Unlikely to Kill Us?

PART II: Getting Risk Savvy

5. Mind Your Money

6. Leadership and Intuition

7. Fun and Games

8. Getting to the Heart of Romance

9. What doctors Need to Know

10. Health Care: No Decision About Me Without Me

11. Banks, Cows, and Other Dangerous Things

PART III: Start Early

12. Revolutionize School

Our sessions will have the following titles/topics (where, for instance, RS3 denotes Risk Savvy, Chapter 3) (subject to change)

1. Introduction

2. Are People Stupid? (RS1) and Certainty Is an Illusion (RS2)

3. Defensive Decision Making (RS3)

4. Why Do We Fear What's Unlikely to Kill Us? (RS4)

5. Mind Your Money (RS5)

6. Leadership and Intuition (RS6)

7. Corporate Scandals: The Risk of Ethical Blindness (Palazzo & Hoffrage)

8. Risks in Engineering (or another topic of your choice)

9. Getting to the Heart of Romance (RS8)

10. Digitalization (without AI) and its Risks (e.g., Gigerenzer, 2022, How to stay smart in a smart world, or Hoffrage, 2019, Wer wagt, gewinnt? Kapitel 9)

11. Artificial Intelligence and its Risks

12. What doctors Need to Know (RS9) and Health Care: No Decision About Me Without Me (RS10)

13. Fun and Games (RS7)

14. Banks, Cows, and Other Dangerous Things (RS11)

Each session (except for the first) is centered around one (or two) chapter(s) or some text. For a given session, you will have to read this text and comment on it (written assignment; individual assignment). These comments will build the basis for a class discussion. This discussion will be moderated by you, that is, a group of students. Who will be the moderator will rotate across sessions.

In addition, there is a group project. Students will be divided into equally-sized groups (which implies that group size hinges on attendance) so that each student will be in exactly one group and responsible (with others of the same group) for one the sessions 2-13. The group of students in charge of a given session will have to read all reflection essays, identify the most interesting ideas / topics, prepare and moderate the discussion during the session. In addition, they will give a presentation of 15 minutes on a topic related to the chapter that will be discussed in this session. Practically this will mean that they have to find one (or several) scientific papers on a topic related to the target chapter and then present this (or those) paper(s). The group may split into two subgroups such that one subgroup is in charge of the presentation of (a) background paper(s), and the other subgroup is in charge of moderating the discussion of the chapter that everyone has read. Both subgroups will meet with the professor and/or the teaching assistant and present what they have prepared for "their" session. In this coaching session they will receive feedback that will, ideally, help them to do a better job in class.

Keywords

risk, uncertainty, risk literacy, risk communication, absolute vs. relative risk

Learning Prerequisites

Required courses

none

Recommended courses

none

Important concepts to start the course

Basic knowledge about statistics would be helpful, but not absolutely necessary.

Learning Outcomes

By the end of the course, the student must be able to:

Elaborate on the distinction between risk and uncertainty
Give an example of how people can make irrational decisions in situations characterized by risk
Give an example of how people can make irrational decisions in situations characterized by uncertainty
Explain why people often misunderstand risks and fall prey to some fallacies in risk perception
Apply Signal Detection Theory to medical testing
Interpret (medical) test results
Give an example of how risk communication can be used to help or hinder people to understand risks
Contrast information and misinformation in the field of risk communication
Illustrate how negative error culture may lead people to defensive (and often destructive) decisions
Discuss the role of risk in various applied fields

Transversal skills

Chair a meeting to achieve a particular agenda, maximising participation.
Demonstrate the capacity for critical thinking
Access and evaluate appropriate sources of information.

Teaching methods

Seminar. Each session (except for the first and the last) is centered around one chapter. For a given session, you will have to read the corresponding chapter and comment on it (written assignment). These comments will build the basis for a class discussion (moderated by students - who will be the moderator will rotate across sessions). Some of the sessions may include presentations by the course instructor or the teaching assistant.

Expected student activities

INDIVIDUAL PROJECT

Students will have to read one chapter per week and write a 200-250 word reflection essay (no summary; rather points of critique, how would you challenge the author, possible extensions, links, examples, counter-examples, what issues do you want to have discussed in the session,â€Š). These essays will, at the end of the course, be grouped together, treated as your final exam, and graded.

GROUP PROJECT

Students will be divided into equally-sized groups (which implies that group size hinges on attendance) so that each student will be in exactly one group and responsible (with others of the same group) for one the sessions 2-13. The group of students in charge of a given session will have to read all reflection essays, identify the most interesting ideas / topics, prepare and moderate the discussion during the session. In addition, they will give a presentation of 15 minutes on a topic related to the chapter that will be discussed in this session. Practically this will mean that they have to find one (or several) scientific papers on a topic related to the target chapter and then present this (or those) paper(s). The group may split into two subgroups such that one subgroup is in charge of the presentation of (a) background paper(s), and the other subgroup is in charge of moderating the discussion of the chapter that everyone has read. Both subgroups will meet with the professor and/or the teaching assistent and present what they have prepared for "their" session. In this coaching session they will receive feedback that will, ideally, help them to do a better job in class.

Assessment methods

85% INDIVIDUAL PROJECT: reflection essays = final exam

15% GROUP PROJECT: session moderation and/or presentation of background paper

Supervision

Office hours	Yes
Assistants	Yes
Forum	Yes

Resources

Virtual desktop infrastructure (VDI)

Bibliography

Gerd Gigerenzer (2014). Risk Savvy: How to make good decisions. New York: Viking/Penguin.

The book is available for purchase (new copy for about 11 SFR, e.g., on abebooks.com, amazon.fr or payot.ch, an e-book version exists as well). To give you some time to purchase the book, copies of the first chapters are available on the moodle. All other articles and book chapters that we will discuss in this seminar are available on moodle.