Risk and environmental sustainability

MATH-383 / 5 credits

Teacher(s): Davison Anthony Christopher, Mhalla Ep Marchand Linda

Language: English

Summary

This course gives an introduction to the assessment of risk with a particular focus on modelling of rare events, which can have huge environmental impacts.

Content

Motivation: environmental risks and catastrophes.

Elements of risk analysis and of statistical modelling.

Probability models for rare events: Poisson process and its properties; extremal distributions and extremal paradigm.

Statistical application of rare event models in environmental settings: analysis of block maxima, threshold exceedances, Poisson models.  Risk assessment via return levels, etc.  Complications such as clustering and non-stationarity.  Practical examples.

Deterministic and probabilistic forecast evaluation. Scoring rules and their propriety.

Keywords

Environmental risk.  Extremal paradigm. Poisson process. Block maxima. Threshold exceedances. Risk assessment. Forecasting.

Learning Prerequisites

Required courses

Basic courses in probability and statistics (e.g., MATH-230, MATH-240)

Learning Outcomes

By the end of the course, the student must be able to:

  • Choose an appropriate approach to data analysis.
  • Estimate risk using statistical methods.
  • Formulate models for risk analysis.
  • Discuss possible issues with their analyses and propose remedies.
  • Expound the main approaches and models used for analysis of rare events.

Transversal skills

  • Write a scientific or technical report.
  • Demonstrate the capacity for critical thinking
  • Demonstrate a capacity for creativity.
  • Use a work methodology appropriate to the task.

Teaching methods

Ex cathedra lectures, exercises in class and at home, mini-project.

Expected student activities

Attending lectures and exercise classes, working with other students.

Assessment methods

Final written exam, mini-project (continual assessment, 30% of final mark).

Resources

Moodle Link

In the programs

  • Semester: Spring
  • Exam form: Written (summer session)
  • Subject examined: Risk and environmental sustainability
  • Courses: 2 Hour(s) per week x 14 weeks
  • Exercises: 2 Hour(s) per week x 14 weeks
  • Type: optional

Reference week

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